Political Prophecies
P. Schultz
December 7, 2011
Here are the words of a former
colleague of mine, trying his best to defend one of his heroes, Raymond Aron,
from the charge that, like so many others, he, Aron, failed to see that his
anti-Communism was more than a bit rabid. According to this former colleague,
Aron understood “once events occurred it was tempting for our contemporaries to
assume that those events were somehow inevitable all along. This temptation was
present both during the Cold War and afterwards.” [Daniel Mahoney, The Conservative Foundations of the Liberal
Order, p. 176] The cold warriors, those who according to Mahoney “resisted
the totalitarian temptation….[were] later criticized for wasting their time
fighting a movement that was…destined to collapse.” [ibid.] And then Mahoney
characterizes those who dissent from this viewpoint as deserving of Aron’s
“rebuke” for their “cowardice and abstention by historical detachment.” [ibid]
So, if one disagrees with Mahoney’s and Aron’s arguments it must be due to a
moral failing because, apparently, any disagreement is patently foolish.
Well, there is a wonderful essay
written by George Orwell entitled James
Burnham and the Managerial Revolution wherein Orwell comments on the
tendencies of intellectuals, of managers, of professors and other “thinkers” to
confuse current trends with future trends. And here is a passage most relevant
to Mahoney’s argument:
“Towards the end of the essay Burnham
compares Stalin with
those semi-mythical heroes, like Moses or Asoka, who embody in themselves
a whole epoch, and can justly be credited with feats that they did not
actually perform. In writing of Soviet foreign policy and its supposed
objectives, he touches an even more mystical note:
“’Starting from the magnetic core of the Eurasian heartland, the Soviet
power, like the reality of the One of Neo-Platonism overflowing in the
descending series of the emanative progression, flows outward, west into
Europe, south into the Near East, east into China, already lapping the
shores of the Atlantic, the Yellow and China Seas, the Mediterranean, and
the Persian Gulf. As the undifferentiated One, in its progression,
descends through the stages of Mind, Soul, and Matter, and then through
its fatal Return back to itself; so does the Soviet power, emanating from
the integrally totalitarian centre, proceed outwards by Absorption (the
Baltics, Bessarabia, Bukovina, East Poland), Domination (Finland, the
Balkans, Mongolia, North China and, tomorrow, Germany), Orienting
Influence (Italy, France, Turkey, Iran, Central and south China. . .),
until it is dissipated in MH ON, the outer material sphere, beyond the
Eurasian boundaries, of momentary Appeasement and Infiltration (England,
the United States).”
And
then Orwell continues as follows:
“It will be seen that at each point
Burnham is predicting A CONTINUATION
OF THE THING THAT IS HAPPENING. Now the tendency to do this is not simply
a bad habit, like inaccuracy or exaggeration, which one can correct by
taking thought. It is a major mental disease, and its roots lie partly in
cowardice and partly in the worship of power, which is not fully
separable from cowardice…Power worship blurs political judgement because it
leads, almost unavoidably, to the belief that present trends will continue.
Whoever is winning at the moment will always seem to be invincible.”
Aron’s
anti-Communism could be seen then as merely an illustration of what Orwell
labels here “a major mental disease,” a dis-ease that afflicts managerial
types, intellectual types, professorial types because they engage in “the
worship of power.” And for Orwell, the or one antidote to this dis-ease is
democracy:
“Fortunately the "managers"
are not so invincible as Burnham believes. It
is curious how persistently, in THE MANAGERIAL REVOLUTION, he ignores the
advantages, military as well as social, enjoyed by a democratic country….The
immediate cause of the German defeat was the unheard-of folly of attacking the
USSR while Britain was still undefeated and America was manifestly getting
ready to fight. Mistakes of this
magnitude can only be made, or at any rate they are most likely to be made, in
countries where public opinion has no power. So long as the common man can get a hearing, such elementary rules as not fighting all
your enemies simultaneously are less likely to be violated.” [Emphasis
added.]
For
Orwell, it is not “the common man” who is governed by unrestrained passion so
much as it is the intelligentsia. And, after all, this makes a certain amount
of sense because “common men” are, willy nilly, more aware that the limitations
imposed on human beings are inescapable. “Common men” do not dwell in “ivory
towers,” entertaining “big theories” because they don’t have the time. What “common
man” would ever think up something like a “war of terrorism” and think that
such an undertaking stood any chance of success? It is the common men who want
one day to be pretty much like other days, who want to be secure in their
neighborhoods, who want to be paid a livable wage earned at a decent job and
little more. The managerial types look
into the future and see nirvana – thanks of course to them – while the common
man knows that “in the long run we are all dead.” As I heard said once: City
planners generally don’t provide cemeteries in their planned cities!
In
brief, one need not be a coward or historically detached to question Aron’s
anti-Communism. One simply might be “common.” One might simply need some "common sense."